Pradeep's Space Newsletter #35

How the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts the Indian space programme?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been strange from the space perspective. Roscosmos (the state corporation that offers spaceflight from Russia) Administrator Dmitry Rogozin has been quite an active component of the Russian state reaction to sanctions imposed on Russia. I have not seen space being so central part of the state reaction.

Usually, space relations are cold at worst and sometimes co-operation in the space sector continues despite poor relationship between states.

The President of the United States, Joe Biden, had announced sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. He had suggested that the sanctions would affect the Russian aerospace sector in particular.

Rogozin replied to this announcement on Twitter. The thread is in Russian.

РОГОЗИН @Rogozin

САНКЦИИ АЛЬЦ-ГЕЙМЕРА Байден заявил, что новые санкции коснутся российской космической программы. Ок. Остается выяснить детали: 1. Вы хотите перекрыть нам доступ к радиационностойкой микроэлектронике космического назначения? Так вы это уже сделали вполне официально в 2014 году.

One of the tweets in the thread referred to India and China. This was reported widely in the Indian media. Twitter offers a Google Translate link under the tweet on both web and Android. Following is the screenshot to capture the Google Translate below it:

When read like this, it seems that he is discussing the “option” of dropping the International Space Station (ISS) on India or China. Read this translation as “chance” and the translation reads better, in context.

In the previous tweets, Rogozin is talking of the fact that sanctions on Russia would lead to no station-keeping. Station-keeping is a way to keep an object in the desired orbit. He had tweeted that if the Russian segments of the ISS were not available for station-keeping, there were chances that the ISS could re-enter over the United States, Europe, India or China.

But despite the rhetoric, Roscosmos did the required station-keeping operations on February 26, 2022:

Jonathan McDowell @planet4589

Well, Rogozin isn't dumping ISS in the sea just yet. Progress MS-18 made a regular 1 km orbit boost of the station at 0122 UTC Feb 26 roscosmos.ru/34256/

Elon Musk replied thus to the tweet, indicating SpaceX would step up to the role.

Elon Musk @elonmusk

@Rogozin

There were other measures Roscosmos had taken like withdrawal of the Russian scientists and engineers from the offices of Arianespace’s Guyana Space Center in response to sanctions from Europe. ExoMars, Spektr-RG and Venera-D are some of the other affected space missions.

OneWeb is another launch that has been kept under suspense by Russia. OneWeb is a company in which India-based Bharti Enterprises has a majority ownership of 42.2%. The French aerospace company, Eutelsat owns 22.9% of the company.

As the invasion occurred, Roscomos tweeted that preparations were on for the next OneWeb launch scheduled for March 5.

РОСКОСМОС @roscosmos

General assembly completed, preparing for rollout ✅ At the Baikonur, the Soyuz-2.1b space rocket general assembly has been completed for the upcoming commercial launch. A meeting of the Commission is planned tomorrow to clear the rocket for rollout to the launch pad.

The satellites were even given the clearance to be rolled out to the launch pad:

РОСКОСМОС @roscosmos

The Commission at the Baikonur Cosmodrome cleared the Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket for rollout and installation at the launch pad on March 2. 🚀 This will be the first commercial launch from Baikonur this year. The launch is scheduled for March 4 at 22:41 UTC

РОСКОСМОС @roscosmos

Комиссия на космодроме Байконур приняла положительное решение о вывозе ракеты-носителя «Союз-2.1б» и её установке на стартовом комплексе 2 марта. 🚀 Это будет первый коммерческий пуск с Байконура в этом году. Он запланирован на 5 марта в 01:41 мск https://t.co/XX4AJVvoU7

After being transported to the launchpad, it was about to go vertical:

РОСКОСМОС @roscosmos

The Soyuz-2.1b rocket was delivered to the Site 31 launch complex of the #Baikonur Cosmodrome. It is in a horizontal position on the transport and installation unit. Now Roscosmos specialists are starting its verticalization

It was ready for launch:

РОСКОСМОС @roscosmos

After rolling up the service structures, specialists began working in accordance with the L-3 schedule. Launch on March 5 🚀 Prelaunch tests of the Soyuz-2.1b rocket systems and assemblies are now carried out, as well as the interaction of onboard and ground equipment is checked

It was at this moment, a day or two before the launch that Roscosmos asked for the following:

РОСКОСМОС @roscosmos

Roscosmos demands guarantees OneWeb satellites not to be used for military purposes: ❗️ Because of Britain's hostile stance against Russia, another condition for the March 5 launch is that the British government withdraws from OneWeb.

РОСКОСМОС @roscosmos

❗️ В связи с враждебной позицией Великобритании в отношении России еще одним условием запуска космических аппаратов OneWeb 5 марта является выход британского правительства из состава акционеров компании OneWeb. 🔗 Подробнее: https://t.co/HHbGC0DY12 https://t.co/M6FnQeKC4K

In addition to Bharati and Eutelsat, OneWeb is owned by the United Kingdom Government, Softweb (the Japanese multinational holding company), Hanwa (a South Korean aerospace and defense company) and Hughes Network System (an American high-speed internet provider company).

Unlike SpaceX’s Starlink, OneWeb does not connect directly to customers. It connects to clusters, businesses and government. OneWeb is designed to use for defense customers within the government. This makes it difficult to agree to the demands that Russia makes above.

There is also fear of loss of capital as OneWeb had paid in advance for the launch to Arianespace. It is not known what would happen to the cluster of 34-36 satellites on-board the Soyuz on the launch-pad in case of an abort.

The r/ISRO sub-Reddit discussed other rocketry related cases of Indian dependence on Russia which may be affected. This could affect Gaganyaan launches further if any sub-system or parts are to be imported into India from Russia.

It could affect the tests of the Semi-Cryogenic Engine (SCE-200) which were to be done in Ukraine. There were reports that the Centers where these were built and tested could have been damaged.

Debapratim 🇺🇦 @debapratim_

Wait Yuzhnoye is also the one involved with SCE-200 right? What does this mean for SCE-200? @gareebscientist @Astro_Neel

Aerospace At Wallops @SpaceAtWallops

There have been reports that Yuzhnoye Design Office in Ukraine has been destroyed. Yuzhnoye is the manufacturer of the 1st stage Antares tank, so if these reports are true, then Antares will never be able to launch again after NG-19. https://t.co/UzfUrMXRoU

Tirtha Chakrabarti @TirthaChakraba2

@gareebscientist @Astro_Neel @debapratim_ From someone closely involved in semi-cryo project: along with minor sub-assembly tests, two major tests are planned in Yuzhmash Ukraine: 1) Power Head Test Article (PHTA) & 2) Integrated Engine Test 1 (IE-1). Following these tests, IE-2, IE-3 & IE-4 tests are planned in IPRC.

SCE-200 is an important component of the up-rating GSLV Mk-III project. It is intended to improve the performance of the GSLV Mk III and enable it to carry 7.5 tonnes to GTO from it’s current capability of 4 tonnes.

These are the India-space-related stories that emerged from the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Some of these news are subjected to change and it is a developing situation.

(This was written on the night of March 3, 2022 and may not include the latest update.)

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